Words by Jessica Kleczka
Monday saw the release of the much-awaited new IPCC report, with a focus on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Widely termed the “bleakest IPCC ever”, it paints an urgent picture of extreme weather events, mass displacement, and a closing window of opportunity to take rapid action. But while it may send some down the path of despair, we still have time to act for a better future.
The IPCC takes a global perspective and focuses on impacts on countries which are already at the frontline of climate impacts: In the most affected areas, which tend to be in the Global South, we can expect droughts, crop failures and energy outages disrupting food security, whole island nations disappearing, and worsening inequalities due to maladaptation. But despite Western leaders routinely ignoring existing climate impacts, the climate crisis has quite literally hit home in recent years: From the extreme heat waves in 2018 and 2021, to wildfires in Wales last year, and the recent storms which caused widespread flooding and travel disruptions, it is becoming clear that nowhere is safe anymore. Climate activists have been sounding the alarm on this for a while, but after years of campaigning the government has yet to credibly address the biggest domestic contributor to climate breakdown: oil and gas.
The ongoing energy price crisis has led to heated discussions around domestic energy production, with some minority views proclaiming that the only way to lower energy bills is to increase oil and gas exploration in the UK and wind down our Net Zero commitments. Recently, the government approved six new oil and gas fields - with 46 other projects in the pipeline for the next three years. This is not only a clear breach of our commitments under the Paris Agreement, but could lead to dramatic consequences for air quality, global heating, and the economy if we were to continue with unabated extraction. The new IPCC report is crystal clear in stressing the escalating cost of climate inaction - and the UK will not be exempt from those impacts.
The recent approval of the Abigail oil and gas field in the North Sea was a controversial move just two months after the UK hosted COP26, and a nonsensical one as it was justified in the context of the current energy crisis. At a cost of 200 million, it will only provide enough gas to meet UK demand for a day and a half. Any oil that Abigail produces is very likely to be sold overseas, as the UK exports 80% of its oil. If this kind of investment was redirected into renewable energy, it could provide more energy over a longer period of time. A recent report by Green Alliance stressed that new oil and gas developments are uneconomic and benefiting neither the Treasury nor UK consumers.
Rishi Sunak’s proposed plans to waive through new oil and gas to ease the energy crisis had experts questioning the chancellor’s economic literacy. The North Sea’s gas belongs to the oil and gas companies that hold the licences, and they are free to sell it to the highest bidder on the international market. The government has since conceded that new domestic oil and gas cannot, in fact, influence prices, following an outcry from experts who stressed that the UK’s over-reliance on fossil fuels is to blame for unaffordable energy bills.
The government’s own climate advisers at the Climate Change Committee stressed last week that stopping the use of fossil fuels is the best way to ease the energy price crisis. Analysis by Carbon Brief backed up their claims, with data showing that energy bills are almost £2.5 billion higher than they would have been had the government not scrapped climate policies, such as growing renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency, over the last decade. If the government wants to “build back greener” like it promised, it must invest heavily in the energy transition to make the country resilient to future crises.
A small group of Conservative backbenchers on the right of the party continue to make false claims, using dreamt up figures about the cost to consumers of switching to renewables and moving to Net Zero. The Climate Change Committee - a leading authority on climate science and policy in the UK - stresses that the cost of Net Zero is negligible at under 1% of GDP until 2050. What’s more, the faster we act the less it will cost. High-level reports by the Stern Review and Office for Budget Responsibility have found that not acting on climate change would be a lot more expensive than doing so, with a lack of ambition risking “very serious impacts on growth and development”.
With no place further than 70 miles from the sea, the UK is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of global heating, with about 5 million properties at risk of flooding in England alone. Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity: Storms in 2020 cost £360 million in insurance payouts, while the recent Storms Franklin and Eunice flooded hundreds of homes and caused fatalities across the UK. More oil will push us beyond the threshold of 1.5°C of warming with devastating effects on people and the economy.
Net Zero will come with savings, too: low-carbon technologies are much more efficient than fossil fuels, and renewables are cheaper than they’ve ever been. Installing them will mean bringing goods and services which are currently imported back to the UK. And the wider economic benefits - from improved health, air quality, and environmental intactness - cannot be overstated. With insulation showing potential to create 150,000 UK jobs in this decade, and offshore wind another 70,000. It is clear that claims around Net Zero being “too expensive” are both short-sighted and ill-informed as fossil fuels will become stranded assets fairly soon. The UK is not disproportionately ambitious, either - our target is identical to those of the EU and US, and countries like Germany are now accelerating the shift towards renewables in light of the Ukraine crisis.
Climate change is a priority for voters, who see it as their top issue of concern - ahead of healthcare, the economy, and the pandemic. Polling shows that 87% of people think green levies should stay - the public is widely clued up on the importance of insulation and clean energy. Despite this, the government still doesn’t have a credible plan for how it will deliver the Net Zero transition. The UK’s Net Zero targets are certainly not perfect - they often rely too much on offsetting and technological advancement rather than real decarbonisation, and the UK still refuses to fully acknowledge the damage we cause outside our borders. But they are a crucial step towards fulfilling our role as a self-proclaimed “climate leader” and COP26 president.
The IPCC’s new findings have created a sense of urgency - now we must react accordingly. If the government fails to deliver the safe climate and healthy environment it promised, it will risk both economic breakdown and political isolation in a global economy committed to decarbonisation. Amidst accumulating crises of energy, war and extreme weather, it is clear that fossil fuels are socially, economically and politically unviable. The UK must now act strategically and prioritise phasing out oil and gas once and for all.
